What? Sizemore overrated? But he’s a 30-30 guy. In 2008 he was even a 33-38 guy. Wow, you’re right that’s really good. But how many times has he done that? Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to put everything together into a monster season yet. Yes, this year there were injuries, I get that. But this was the third year that his AVG went down. Which tracked perfectly with a fall in Speed Score and BABIP (as fangraphs will show you) from a peak of 7.6 Spd Score and .342 BABIP in 2006 down ot 6.0 Spd Score and .276 BABIP this year. Now regression will help him, true, but how much? Remember that most projection systems are based on the last three years of data plus an aging factor.
But projections currently put him at 26 HR 27 SB .271 AVG. A good set of numbers, but note that neither HR or SB are elite, although the combination certainly is rare. The problem is that you can get HR hitters and SB specialists who both have .270 AVG for much cheaper than the usual $40 Sizemore goes for.
Caveat: Could he put it all together? Yes. A BABIP of .291 (last years) is odd on a guy so fast and with such power. A higher AVG would mean more steals, more value from AVG, and more Runs and RBI. But count me as one guy willing to let someone else pay for him. What about him being injured, will so many be scared away as to make him undervalued? Well, maybe, I’d pay 20-25 for him, but not much more.
Tags: Grady Sizemore, Overrated
