Remember that first half of the season when he went crazy? That was because of an unsupportable 30%+ HR/FB rate, while playing with SD. Remember the next month or two when he didn’t do shit? That’s regression for you. Even so, he ended up with 40 HR.
The Conundrum here is less about his stats and more about (1) what his perceived value will be and (2) where will he be playing.
San Diego is going to have to trade him, either this winter, or during the season. They can’t pay him, and they are so far out of contention that they need to rebuild. And a change to anywhere else would appear to make him a 50 HR threat, well, unless he’s getting traded to an AL team, but that is another post for another day.
So what happens if everyone catches on that he might be traded or if he actually does get traded? I think if he does get traded the hype machine explodes (rightfully so) and there is no profit to be made here, although you could probably get him at value. But what happens if he is not traded (even though we both know he will be eventually)? Do people remember his crazy first half, his very awful middle of the season, or just look at the 40 HR and don’t dig into the numbers? Probably the last one, but it is at least possible that some will shy away from him, especially owners who had him this year who remember the black hole he was for a few months. If that turns out to be the case, feel comfortable to get him at value between $15-22, because you know he will be worth it once he’s traded.
Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Conundrum
